Austin Median Home Price Trends March 2026

Daily Market Briefing

Austin home prices are telling a story of correction, resilience, and cautious optimism as the first quarter of 2026 comes to a close.

The austin real estate market wrapped up March 31, 2026 with a median sold price of $436,000, a figure that carries a lot of meaning for anyone trying to understand where things stand right now. That number is down roughly 20.73% from the all-time peak of $550,000 set back in May 2022, which translates to about $114,000 in lost value from the top. But here is the detail worth paying attention to: that same median price rose $29,134 compared to February 2026, a month-over-month gain of 7.2%. For buyers and sellers alike, that kind of bounce off a recent floor is worth watching closely.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for March 31, 2026.

The average sold price for March came in at $584,314, also up meaningfully from the prior month, and still sitting about 14.32% below its own peak of $681,939 set in May 2022. In real dollar terms, that is roughly $98,000 below the high-water mark. These price figures reflect a market that has gone through a real correction since the pandemic-era frenzy, but one that is showing early signs of stabilization rather than continued freefall.

For context on just how far prices have traveled, consider this austin housing forecast projection from the data: using Austin's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.657% per year, and assuming the current $436,000 median represents the bottom of this cycle, it would take approximately 63 months from today to return to the previous peak. That puts a potential full recovery around May 2031. The market would need to appreciate 26.15% from where it sits today to reach that threshold. That is not a short timeline, but it is also not an unusual one for a market recovering from a correction of this size.

On the supply side, the austin market update for March shows 14,933 active residential listings, which is 7.6% more than the same point in March 2025. New construction accounts for 3,715 of those listings, while resale makes up the remaining 11,218. Inventory did pull back significantly from last summer's peak of 18,146 active listings set on June 30, 2025, which is encouraging. Still, at 5.29 Months of Inventory, the market remains in buyer-favorable territory for most product types. For reference, the City of Austin proper has seen its own Months of Inventory actually tick down 3.6% year over year to 5.76 months, a small but notable contrast to the broader metro trend.

Nearly half of all active listings across the metro, specifically 46.8%, have experienced at least one price reduction. Some individual cities are seeing even sharper discounting pressure. Liberty Hill sits at 59.2% of listings with a price drop, Hutto is at 57.7%, and Lockhart is leading the pack at 64.1%. These are the kinds of numbers that tell buyers they have real room to negotiate in many suburban corridors. Georgetown, one of Austin's largest suburban markets, shows 52.1% of listings with at least one price reduction and a Months of Inventory reading of 4.92, down 8.9% from last year, which makes it a nuanced story compared to some of its neighbors.

The Activity Index for the overall resale market stands at 21.08%, placing it squarely in the Softening phase, defined as the range between 20% and 25%. This means demand is present but not dominant, and supply continues to accumulate faster than homes are selling. New construction, by contrast, is performing considerably better with an Activity Index of 33.05%, landing in Expansion territory above 30%. This divergence between new construction and resale is a theme worth noting for both buyers and real estate professionals. Builders are offering incentives, rate buydowns, and move-in-ready inventory that resale sellers simply cannot match in most cases.

Pending listings offer one of the more encouraging signals in the current austin housing data. There were 4,831 pending listings as of March 31, 2026, up 9.0% from the 4,434 reported in March 2025. The cumulative pending count from January through March reached 10,919, essentially flat year over year at 0.0% change, but sitting 10.2% above the long-term historical average for this period of the year. That above-average pending volume suggests that even in a softer pricing environment, buyers are actively engaging with the market. Demand has not dried up, it has simply repriced.

The New Listing to Pending Ratio for March came in at 0.67, meaning that for every home that went pending this month, about 1.5 new listings entered the market. The year-to-date ratio stands at 0.73, compared to a 25-year historical average of 0.82. A ratio below 1.0 generally indicates more supply coming in than demand absorbing it, which continues to put downward pressure on prices across much of the metro. The cumulative gap between new listings and pending sales for the year so far is 1,928 units, a reminder that the inventory overhang has not yet cleared.

The Absorption Rate for March 2026 sits at 17.55%, well below the historical average of 31.43%. This metric measures the share of active listings that sold in a given month, and a reading this far below average confirms that supply is outpacing demand at the market-wide level. The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover metrics into a single 0-to-10 index, came in at 3.63 for March. The historical average for this index is 6.56, placing the current reading well below the midpoint and confirming that the market is absorbing inventory slowly relative to its own history.

From a city-level pricing perspective, only 8 of 30 tracked cities showed year-over-year gains in median sold price. Wimberley led all cities with a 20.1% gain, and Lago Vista and Smithville also posted positive numbers. The remaining 22 cities were down year over year. At the bottom of the price performance tier, Lockhart was off 13.2%, Marble Falls fell 14.7%, and Driftwood dropped 13.6% compared to last year.

The Home Value Index analysis adds another layer to this austin real estate forecast picture. Of the 30 cities tracked, 17 or 56.7% are currently classified as overvalued relative to inflation-adjusted baselines. Thirteen cities, or 43.3%, are considered fairly valued, and just one city, Lockhart, is flagged as undervalued. For buyers focused on long-term value, that undervalued designation is notable.

For anyone watching the austin real estate market from the sidelines, this is a moment defined by more inventory, more negotiating room, and prices that have come down meaningfully from their peaks. The market is not in crisis, but it is not in recovery either. It is in transition, and how that transition plays out over the next several quarters will depend heavily on mortgage rates, job growth, and whether the steady stream of new listings begins to slow.

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FAQ SECTION

What is Months of Inventory and what does Austin's number mean for buyers?

Months of Inventory is a measure of how long it would take to sell all currently active listings if no new homes came onto the market and sales continued at the current pace. It is calculated by dividing the number of active listings by the number of homes sold per month. In general, a reading below five months tends to favor sellers because supply is tight relative to demand, while a reading above six months typically shifts leverage toward buyers. As of March 31, 2026, Austin's Months of Inventory stands at 5.29, up 7.8% from the 4.91 reading recorded in March 2025, and up a dramatic 45.9% compared to two years ago in March 2024. That two-year trajectory tells a clear story: the Austin market has moved from a supply-starved environment into one where buyers have real options and real leverage. For practical purposes, a reading of 5.29 means buyers can take more time to evaluate homes, submit offers below asking price with reasonable expectations, and request seller concessions that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. The resale-only Months of Inventory places most of the metro in the Buyer Advantage category, which the data defines as 210 to 267 days of supply, and several outer suburbs like Jarrell, Lago Vista, Burnet, and Elgin have climbed well above that threshold into Buyer Control territory at 270-plus days.

Are Austin new construction homes selling faster than resale homes?

Yes, and the difference is significant right now. The Activity Index for new construction in the Austin market is currently at 33.05%, which places it in the Expansion phase, defined as above 30%, where demand is strong and absorption is happening at a healthy pace. Resale homes, by contrast, have an Activity Index of only 21.08%, placing them in the Softening phase between 20% and 25%, where sales are slower and inventory tends to build. This gap reflects the advantages that builders have deployed to compete: interest rate buydowns, closing cost contributions, move-in-ready inventory, and flexible pricing tied to remaining lots rather than emotional attachment to a purchase price paid years ago. For buyers, this means that new construction often represents a more predictable and competitively priced option in the current environment, especially when builder incentives are factored in. There are currently 3,715 new construction listings active in the Austin metro, compared to 11,218 resale listings, and new construction accounts for 1,834 of the 4,831 pending listings, representing a strong pending share relative to its portion of overall inventory. Agents working with buyers should take the time to walk their clients through both segments before settling on a direction.

Which Austin suburbs have the best value for homebuyers right now?

The answer depends on how you define value, but the data points to several communities that stand out in March 2026. Lockhart is the only city in the entire 30-city Home Value Index classified as undervalued, meaning current prices sit below what inflation and long-term appreciation trends would suggest is fair market value. That is a rare designation and worth noting for buyers focused on fundamentals. Cedar Park and Round Rock both have Months of Inventory readings below four months, which means they are moving faster than most of the metro and may offer more price stability over time. On the affordability side, cities like Jarrell, Elgin, and Manor continue to offer lower median price points, though they also carry higher Months of Inventory readings and elevated price reduction rates, with Hutto at 57.7% and Liberty Hill at 59.2% of listings having seen at least one reduction. Georgetown offers a nuanced picture: its Months of Inventory actually fell 8.9% year over year to 4.92 months, and its Activity Index of 21.85% is improving relative to many peers, though 52.1% of its listings have had a price drop. For buyers with flexibility on location, the outer ring of the metro currently offers the most negotiating room, while the inner suburbs closer to Austin proper tend to offer better absorption and longer-term price stability.

What is the absorption rate in Austin and why does it matter?

The Absorption Rate is the percentage of active listings that sell in a given month, and it is one of the most direct measures of how well supply and demand are balanced in a housing market. A rate above 30% generally signals a seller's market where homes are moving quickly and multiple offers are common. A rate below 20% suggests a buyer's market where supply is outpacing demand and sellers must compete for attention. Austin's current Absorption Rate for March 2026 is 17.55%, which is well below the historical average of 31.43% and clearly in buyer-friendly territory. To put that in perspective, during the peak of the market frenzy in March 2021, the Absorption Rate hit 166.8%, meaning nearly all available inventory was being absorbed in a single month. Today's reading at 17.55% means that for every 100 homes listed in Austin, fewer than 18 sold in the month of March. This lower rate is a key reason why 46.8% of active listings have had price reductions, why Months of Inventory has climbed to 5.29, and why buyers across the metro are finding more room to negotiate. Real estate professionals should use the Absorption Rate as a conversation starter with sellers about realistic pricing expectations, because overpriced listings in a 17.55% absorption environment are likely to sit and accumulate days on market without serious activity.

How does the Austin housing market compare to the national average?

Austin continues to stand out from national housing trends in several important ways. While many U.S. markets have seen modest inventory improvements since the pandemic highs, Austin's inventory expansion has been far more dramatic. Active listings are up 7.6% year over year to 14,933, and the two-year change in Months of Inventory is a striking 45.9% increase, a pace of supply growth that most national markets have not experienced. The Austin median sold price of $436,000 is considerably above the national median, which reflects the region's strong economic foundation built around technology, education, and government employment. However, Austin has also seen one of the largest peak-to-present price corrections of any major metro, with the median down 20.73% from its May 2022 high of $550,000, a deeper pullback than most comparable cities have experienced. The Market Flow Score of 3.63, against a historical average of 6.56, indicates that market efficiency and transaction velocity are well below their norms for Austin specifically, even if the market would still appear active by the standards of slower-growing regions. The austin real estate forecast data suggests that while national housing trends remain relatively constrained by limited resale inventory in many markets, Austin is navigating its own unique correction cycle, one driven by a supply surge rather than the typical shortage that defines most of the country right now.

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